In an interview last week with The New York Times, Superintendent Compass said that some of his most shocking statements turned out to be untrue. Asked about reports of rapes and murders, he said: “We have no official reports to document any murder. Not one official report of rape or sexual assault.”

On Sept. 4, however, he was quoted in The Times about conditions at the convention center, saying: “The tourists are walking around there, and as soon as these individuals see them, they’re being preyed upon. They are beating, they are raping them in the streets.”

Those comments, Superintendent Compass now says, were based on secondhand reports. The tourists “were walking with their suitcases, and they would have their clothes and things taken,” he said last week. “No rapes that we can quantify.”

During six days when the Superdome was used as a shelter, the head of the New Orleans Police Department’s sex crimes unit, Lt. David Benelli, said he and his officers lived inside the dome and ran down every rumor of rape or atrocity. In the end, they made two arrests for attempted sexual assault, and concluded that the other attacks had not happened.

“I think it was urban myth,” said Lieutenant Benelli, who also heads the police union. “Any time you put 25,000 people under one roof, with no running water, no electricity and no information, stories get told.”

This had to be embarrassing:

A contingent of National Guard troops was sent to rescue a St. Bernard Parish deputy sheriff who radioed for help, saying he was pinned down by a sniper. Accompanied by a SWAT team, the troops surrounded the area. The shots turned out to be the relief valve on a gas tank that popped open every few minutes, said Maj. Gen. Ron Mason of the 35th Infantry Division of the Kansas National Guard.

After Hurricane Charley hit Florida in 2004, 77 percent of the deaths blamed on the hurricane were classified as unintentional injury.

So the biggest danger comes after the storm has passed, when you’ve already sighed with relief (or resignation) and started rebuilding.

History News Network interviewed historian Erik Larson, author of Isaac’s Storm: A Man, a Time, and the Deadliest Hurricane in History. I think he has some interesting observations that are relevant to understanding Katrina.

The Katrina Death Toll

Also, I’d be cautious about anticipating a huge death toll in New Orleans. I heard a report on NPR today that officials had brought 25,000 body bags to New Orleans. I’m sticking my neck out here, but I’d be surprised if the toll in New Orleans topped 200. Those may be famous last words. I think where the death toll may turn out to be shockingly high is in Mississippi, in Gulfport and Biloxi, and surrounding coastal areas. As of this moment—c. 6:30 Pacific time, Sept. 8, 2005—the toll in Mississippi already is over 200, in New Orleans, somewhere around 50.

Government Response to the Galveston Hurricane

Did the president and Congress play a leading role in responding to the Galveston disaster?

No. A vast outpouring of money and supplies from individuals around the country, and the world, accounted for most of the response. The Red Cross arrived in force, with none other than Clara Barton at the helm. U.S. military forces were dispatched to Galveston, but in fact local civilian authorities had managed to keep order. Rumors of atrocities, such as theft of victim’s jewelry, were rife but as best anyone can tell were unfounded. Strong community ties that transcended race held Galveston together.

Katrina Could Have Been Much Worse

Needless to say I watched coverage of the advance of the storm and its aftermath with deep interest. During the tail-end of my research for Isaac’s Storm some seven years ago I polled half a dozen of the leading hurricane experts who all agreed that one day a hurricane could again cause mass death. Number one on each expert’s list of nightmares was New Orleans. And there, on CNN and the Weather Channel, was the storm of their nightmares, seemingly headed for a direct impact in New Orleans. It was very strange. This may sound strange, but New Orleans got off relatively easy. Had Katrina maintained her Category 5 strength and struck New Orleans head on, those thousands of body bags might in fact have been necessary.

Media Coverage

Clearly New Orleans is a big story. A good portion of the city was flooded after the two breaks occurred in the city’s protective levee network, and the events in the Superdome provided an easy focus for reporters and producers. But as best I can tell—and again, I know only what I read and see in press coverage—the most severe, head-on damage from Katrina was inflicted in Gulfport and Biloxi and surrounding coastal areas. From time to time the networks did provide aerial video of these areas, and the damage was appalling, with great mounds of debris massed at the point where the storm surge halted. Those images very much evoked for me Galveston and the terror so many Galvestonians faced as the storm surge advanced. Based on Galveston’s experience, I would expect that recovery teams will find quite a few more dead among these debris basins as the weeks wear on.

No doubt about it: the story of the Este family, trapped in their attic while New Orleans flooded, is moving. But something seems slightly inappropriate about how CNN has photoshopped the images of these evacuees into a slick, Reader’s Digest-like promotional banner, while they’re still homeless and their dead grandmother lies unburied.

Check this out: go to Google Maps and search for “New Orleans.” Click “Satellite” to see the city before hurricane Katrina, then click “Katrina” to view the flooding. I think the amount of water is amazing.